Modelling Cataract Mortality in Kenya: A New Tool for Eye Health Planning
Cataract remains the leading cause of blindness globally, affecting an estimated 100 million people. It is also one of the most treatable conditions, yet surgical access remains limited in many low- and middle-income countries.
This research aims to develop a simulation model to project the national cataract backlog, surgical interventions, and number of deaths among people with cataract-related vision impairment before accessing surgery over 50 years under different surgical capacity scenarios in Kenya.
Key Findings:
- Kenya’s current cataract surgical rate is 702 surgeries per million people per year. At the current surgical capacity, for every cataract surgery performed between 2025 and 2029, four individuals will die without having received one.
- An estimated 360,000 people were in Kenya’s cataract surgical backlog in 2025. The model estimates that 280,400 (77%) will die before receiving surgery, with 236,400 (66%) projected to die before 2030.
- Doubling the surgical rate could allow an additional 24,000 people to receive treatment, thereby reducing untreated mortality by 16%. A tenfold increase in surgical capacity would nearly eliminate deaths amongst those awaiting surgery.
- The model was validated against Kenya’s 2023 national RAAB survey, with an 11% margin of error.
Kenya was used as a case study due to its strong national eye health data infrastructure, including recent population-based RAAB surveys and a published national eye health strategy. The authors note the model can be adapted with local inputs for use in other country contexts.
The findings provide a practical planning tool for policy makers, health systems, and global eye health organisations working towards universal health coverage and the reduction of avoidable blindness.
Reference: Bastawrous A, Ouchtar Y, Gichangi M, et al. Prevalence of death in people with vision impairment from cataracts before treatment: a case study from Kenya. Lancet Healthy Longev. 2026. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanhl.2025.100800
