Global trachoma cases are projected to rise by 2040
A systematic analysis by Meng et al. used Global Burden of Disease 2021 data from 60 countries and territories to examine global, regional and national trends in trachoma from 1990 to 2021, assess cross-country inequalities, and project the burden to 2040.
Key Findings:
- Globally, an estimated 1,414,047 people had trachoma in 2021, a 30.2% decline from 2,026,157 cases in 1990. The age-standardised prevalence rate fell by 67.9%, from 51.01 to 16.37 per 100,000 population.
- In 2021, women accounted for 60.6% of people with trachoma and 61.5% of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost to the disease. Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa carried the heaviest regional burden in 2021, accounting for 49.2% of global cases. Its age-standardized prevalence rate of 420.59 per 100,000 was 25.7 times the global rate.
- Ethiopia had highest number of cases in 2021, with 552,129 cases, while Somalia had the highest age-standardised prevalence rate at 1,703.09 cases per 100,000 population. Ethiopia, India and Somalia together accounted for 71.6% of people with trachoma globally.
- Countries with a lower Socio-Demographic Index continued to bear a disproportionate share of the burden. Epidemiological improvements drove the overall decline, while population growth and ageing pushed the absolute burden upward.
- Although age-standardised prevalence and DALY rates are projected to continue declining through 2040, the number of people with trachoma is projected to rise by 23.6%, from 1,414,047 in 2021 to 1,747,096 in 2040.
Reference: Meng Y, Li F, Zeng S, Liang C, Chi W. Global, Regional, and National Burden of Trachoma: Cross-Country Inequalities, 1990-2021, with Projections to 2040. Ophthalmol Ther. 2025; 14:1065-1079. doi:10.1007/s40123-025-01102-5.
