China faces escalating childhood myopia crisis with projections reaching 61% by 2050
A new systematic review and meta-analysis of 82 studies involving 218,794 participants establishes current baselines in myopia and high myopia in children and adolescents in China and projects trends through 2050, offering critical insights for implementing nationwide myopia prevention and control programs.
Key Findings:
- In 2020, the overall myopia prevalence among Chinese children aged 0-19 years is 36.6%, with dramatic increases by age group: 2.6% in ages 0-4, 22.0% in ages 5-9, 45.4% in ages 10-14, and 67.2% in ages 15-19. High myopia affects 5.3% of children overall, reaching 9.5% in the 15-19 age group.
- Urban children show higher myopia rates (39.5%) compared to rural children (28.5%). However, projections suggest this gap will narrow over time, with rural areas reaching approximately 89% of urban prevalence rates (56.2% vs 63.1%) by 2050.
- High myopia prevalence is expected to increase substantially, particularly in urban areas where it could reach 23.3% among 15-19 year-olds by 2050. This represents a significant concern given the association of high myopia with vision-threatening complications.
- Three scenario models reveal a wide range of potential outcomes. Under the experience-based scenario (based on historical trends), myopia prevalence is projected to reach 61.3% by 2050, while the maximum growth scenario (maximum near-work time & minimum outdoor time) projects 71.9% and the minimum growth scenario (120 minutes of outdoor time daily) could reduce prevalence to just 14.4%.
The study’s projections demonstrate that implementing effective prevention strategies, such as increasing outdoor time to 2 hours daily, could dramatically reduce future myopia prevalence. These findings also provide essential baseline data for evaluating the effectiveness of China’s national myopia prevention initiatives and offer a framework for other countries facing similar myopia epidemics.
Reference: Pan W, Saw SM, Wong TY, Morgan I, Yang Z, Lan W. Prevalence and temporal trends in myopia and high myopia children in China: a systematic review and meta-analysis with projections from 2020 to 2050. Lancet Reg Health West Pac. 2025;55:101484. Published 2025 Jan 27. doi:10.1016/j.lanwpc.2025.101484
